A Deterministic Model to Quantify Risk and Guide Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Bluetongue Virus Transmission in California Dairy Cattle
نویسندگان
چکیده
The global distribution of bluetongue virus (BTV) has been changing recently, perhaps as a result of climate change. To evaluate the risk of BTV infection and transmission in a BTV-endemic region of California, sentinel dairy cows were evaluated for BTV infection, and populations of Culicoides vectors were collected at different sites using carbon dioxide. A deterministic model was developed to quantify risk and guide future mitigation strategies to reduce BTV infection in California dairy cattle. The greatest risk of BTV transmission was predicted within the warm Central Valley of California that contains the highest density of dairy cattle in the United States. Temperature and parameters associated with Culicoides vectors (transmission probabilities, carrying capacity, and survivorship) had the greatest effect on BTV's basic reproduction number, R0. Based on these analyses, optimal control strategies for reducing BTV infection risk in dairy cattle will be highly reliant upon early efforts to reduce vector abundance during the months prior to peak transmission.
منابع مشابه
The combination of abundance and infection rates of Culicoides sonorensis estimates risk of subsequent bluetongue virus infection of sentinel cattle on California dairy farms.
Bluetongue (BT) is an important viral disease of ruminants that is transmitted by hematophagous Culicoides midges. We examined the seasonal patterns of abundance and infection of Culicoides sonorensis at four dairy farms in the northern Central Valley of California to develop estimates of risk for bluetongue virus (BTV) transmission to cattle at each farm. These four farms were selected because...
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